Next Express Entry Draw Prediction June 2026: Healthcare, Trades, French, Education or Senior Managers? Category Probability Analysis

EXPRESS ENTRY · NEXT-DRAW PROBABILITY MODEL

By VG Immigration Editorial Desk · Reviewed by RCIC-IRB Dimple Verma (R708308)

Published June 24, 2026 — Brampton, Ontario

Next Express Entry Draw Prediction June 2026: Will It Be Healthcare, Trades, French, Education, or Senior Managers? Category-by-Category Probability Analysis

After yesterday’s Canadian Experience Class draw on June 23, 2026 — 4,000 ITAs at CRS 516, the largest CEC round since March — attention has shifted decisively to the next round: will it be a category-based draw, and if so, which category? IRCC published its 2026 invitation schedule in August 2025 with binding annual quotas for each category, and the draw history through June 23, 2026 leaves significant gaps that strongly suggest the next round will be category-based.

Through 32 draws in 2026, IRCC has issued 80,828 invitations. Ten of those have been category-based — fewer than one in three. With six months of 2026 remaining and unfilled quotas in Healthcare (4,000 ITAs remaining), Trades (300 remaining), Education (3,000 untouched), STEM (3,000 untouched), Transport (3,000 untouched), Researchers (full quota), and Skilled Military Recruits (full quota), the second half of 2026 will almost certainly feature an accelerated category-draw cadence. The question is which category is up next, and at what CRS cutoff.

Key Facts at a Glance

• Most recent draw: CEC on June 23, 2026 — 4,000 ITAs at CRS 516.
• Most recent category draw: Trades on April 2, 2026 — 3,000 ITAs at CRS 477. (Eight-week gap and counting.)
• Most recent French draw: May 28, 2026 — 4,500 ITAs at CRS 409 (Draw #418).
• Most recent Healthcare draw: February 20, 2026 — 4,000 ITAs at CRS 467. (Four-month gap.)
• Most recent Senior Managers draw: March 5, 2026 — 250 ITAs at CRS 429.
• Most recent Physicians draw: February 19, 2026 — 391 ITAs at CRS 169.
• Education category: Zero draws in 2026 (3,000 ITAs untouched in the IRCC schedule).
• STEM category: Zero draws in 2026 (full quota untouched).
• Transport, Researchers, Skilled Military: Zero draws in 2026 (full quota untouched).
• 2026 minimum experience requirement: Increased from 6 months to 12 months in the qualifying NOC within the past 36 months.
• Pool pressure: 20,012 candidates in the 501–600 CRS band; 238,847+ profiles total.

The 2026 Category Quota Picture — What’s Left to Issue

Category	2026 Annual Quota	ITAs Issued YTD	Remaining	Last 2026 Draw
French-language proficiency	~30,500+	30,500	Likely 5,000+ in H2	May 28 · 4,500 @ 409
Healthcare & Social Services	8,000	4,000	4,000	Feb 20 · 4,000 @ 467
Trades	3,300	3,000	~300	Apr 2 · 3,000 @ 477
Education	3,000	0	3,000	None in 2026 (Sept 2025: 2,500 @ 462)
STEM	~3,000	0	~3,000	None in 2026 (Apr 2024: 4,500 @ 491)
Transport	~1,500	0	~1,500	None in 2026 (Mar 2024: 975 @ 430)
Senior Managers (Canadian work exp.)	250	250	0	Mar 5 · 250 @ 429
Physicians (Canadian work exp.)	~400	391	~10	Feb 19 · 391 @ 169
Researchers (Canadian work exp.)	Limited	0	Full	No draws yet
Skilled Military Recruits	Limited	0	Full	No draws yet

Quotas reflect IRCC’s published 2026 invitation schedule. ITAs-issued figures verified against IRCC’s Express Entry rounds-of-invitation page. The 250-ITA Senior Managers quota is fully exhausted and unlikely to feature again in 2026 unless IRCC publishes a quota supplement.

Could It Be Healthcare? Probability Analysis

Probability: 12%. Healthcare and Social Services has 4,000 ITAs remaining against an 8,000-ITA annual quota, and the last healthcare draw was February 20, 2026 — over four months ago. That four-month dormancy is the longest of any partly-issued category and is, on its face, the strongest argument for a near-term healthcare round.

However, healthcare draws in 2026 have followed a clustered pattern — IRCC tends to issue large healthcare batches (4,000 at a time) rather than smaller staggered rounds. The full 4,000 remaining quota is more likely to be issued in a single August–September draw aligned with the start of provincial hiring cycles for nurses, physicians, and allied-health professionals.

Eligible NOC codes (Healthcare & Social Services 2026)

• NOC 30010 — Managers in health care
• NOC 31300 — Nursing coordinators and supervisors
• NOC 31301 — Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses
• NOC 31302 — Nurse practitioners
• NOC 32101 — Licensed practical nurses
• NOC 41300 — Social workers
• NOC 42201 — Social and community service workers
• NOC 33102 — Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates

If Healthcare lands, expected size 4,000 ITAs at CRS 460–475 (historical 2026 range was 467; the pool has aged about 8 weeks since the last round, suggesting a modest cutoff increase of 5–10 points).

Could It Be Trades? Probability Analysis

Probability: 25%. Only about 300 ITAs remain in the Trades quota after the April 2, 2026 round of 3,000 ITAs at CRS 477. A small Trades round in late June or early July would close out the 2026 Trades quota cleanly before IRCC reopens new fiscal-year allocations. Small “cleanup” Trades draws have historically been issued in the 250–500 ITA range with cutoffs in the 470–490 band.

Eligible NOC codes (Trades 2026)

• NOC 72010 — Contractors and supervisors, machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades
• NOC 72011 — Contractors and supervisors, electrical trades and telecommunications occupations
• NOC 72014 — Contractors and supervisors, other construction trades, installers, repairers
• NOC 72100 — Machinists and machining and tooling inspectors
• NOC 72106 — Welders and related machine operators
• NOC 72200 — Electricians (except industrial and power system)
• NOC 72300 — Plumbers
• NOC 72310 — Carpenters
• NOC 72320 — Bricklayers
• NOC 72400 — Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics
• NOC 72401 — Heavy-duty equipment mechanics
• NOC 73300 — Heavy equipment operators

If Trades lands, expected size 250–500 ITAs at CRS 470–490, possibly bundled with another small category to make the round operationally efficient.

Could It Be French-Language Proficiency? Probability Analysis

Probability: 40%. French is the most active category in 2026 by a wide margin — six draws, 30,500 ITAs issued, and consistent low cutoffs in the 393–419 range. IRCC has committed publicly to a Francophone immigration target equivalent to 8.5% of all permanent residents admitted outside Quebec, and category-based draws are the primary federal mechanism for hitting that target.

The May 28 French draw was followed by a 26-day gap before the June 22 PNP round, then the June 23 CEC round. The historical 2026 pattern shows roughly one French draw every 28–35 days. We are now 27 days past May 28 — squarely in the historical French-draw window. Moving2Canada’s prediction model also flags French as the most likely next round.

If French lands, expected size 4,000–5,000 ITAs at CRS 395–415. Eligibility: NCLC 7 across all four French language abilities (TEF Canada or TCF Canada), with no NOC requirement beyond standard Express Entry eligibility. See our complete 2026 language-test guide for TEF and TCF score conversion details.

Could It Be Education? Probability Analysis

Probability: 15%. The Education category has not yet been used in 2026. The only previous Education draw was September 17, 2025 — 2,500 ITAs at CRS 462. With 3,000 ITAs in the 2026 schedule still untouched and the K–12 hiring cycle approaching for the September school year, late June or July is a plausible launch window for the first 2026 Education round.

Eligible NOC codes (Education 2026)

• NOC 41220 — Elementary school and kindergarten teachers
• NOC 41221 — Secondary school teachers
• NOC 42202 — Early childhood educators and assistants
• NOC 43100 — Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants
• NOC 41210 — College and other vocational instructors (selected sub-codes)

If Education lands, expected size 1,000–1,500 ITAs at CRS 460–480 (slightly higher than September 2025 reflecting the 12-month experience-minimum reform that has narrowed the eligible pool to more senior candidates).

Could It Be STEM? Probability Analysis

Probability: 5%. The STEM category — Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics — has issued zero ITAs in 2026 despite a healthy quota. The April 2024 STEM round invited 4,500 candidates at CRS 491, and the eligible pool is typically large and well-scored. IRCC has hinted that STEM rounds are paused while occupational lists are reconsidered in light of 2026 labour-market data; the upcoming high-wage factor consultation referenced by IRCC in June 2026 may also delay STEM draws to later in the year.

If STEM lands, expected size 2,000–4,500 ITAs at CRS 485–505 (the highest cutoff among non-French category draws given the deep STEM applicant pool).

Could It Be Senior Managers? Probability Analysis

Probability: 2%. The Senior Managers with Canadian Work Experience category exhausted its 250-ITA 2026 quota on March 5, 2026 at CRS 429. Without a published quota supplement, no further Senior Managers draws are expected in 2026. Candidates in NOC TEER 0 senior-management roles who hold Canadian work experience should focus on PNP streams or general CEC rounds for the balance of the year.

Could It Be Transport, Physicians, Researchers, or Military? Probability Analysis

Combined probability: 1%. Transport occupations have an untouched 2026 quota (~1,500 ITAs), but IRCC has not signalled a near-term draw. Physicians and Researchers categories are tightly defined and small. The Skilled Military Recruits category, launched in February 2026, is administratively complex and unlikely to feature a draw before late 2026 or early 2027.

The Most Probable Outcome: French First, Trades Cleanup Second

Our analytical model assigns the highest probability to a French-language draw in the next 7–10 days, followed by a small Trades cleanup round before the end of July. The reasoning is straightforward:

1. French is overdue by historical pattern — 27 days since May 28 puts the next French round squarely in the historical 28–35 day French-draw window.
2. French serves the 8.5% Francophone admission target — IRCC has firm policy commitments that drive consistent French-draw cadence regardless of other category activity.
3. Trades has a small unfilled quota — closing 300 ITAs in a single small round is operationally efficient and consistent with IRCC’s year-end closeout pattern.
4. Healthcare, Education, STEM, and Transport are higher-volume rounds — IRCC typically clusters these in August through November to align with provincial hiring cycles and fiscal-year wind-down.

The least likely outcome is no draw at all for the next two weeks. IRCC’s documented commitment to maintaining draw cadence — combined with the resumption of draws after the early-June pause — suggests at least one category-based round before July 8.

What You Should Do Right Now

Regardless of which category lands next, three actions maximize your odds of receiving an ITA in the next 14 days:

1. Verify your NOC code is correctly tagged on your Express Entry profile. Mismatched NOC codes are the leading cause of category-eligible candidates being skipped over in targeted draws.
2. If you have French proficiency, take or refresh your TEF or TCF test. French test scores must be valid (within 2 years) at the time of ITA. A draw on day 729 of validity is functionally a draw on day 0 of expiration — many candidates lose ITAs to expired French results.
3. Pre-stage your supporting documents. Reference letters from each employer, ECA, language results, police certificates, and proof of funds (where applicable) should be uploaded to your Express Entry document folder before an ITA arrives. You have only 60 days from ITA to submit a complete PR application.

CRS Score Ranges to Watch

• CRS 393–420: French-language eligible — strongest possible position.
• CRS 460–490: Healthcare, Trades, Education, or Transport eligible — strong position.
• CRS 485–510: STEM eligible (when draws resume) — moderate position.
• CRS 515–525: General CEC pool — wait for next CEC round (expected July 6–7).
• CRS below 400 without French: Focus on PNP routes; provincial nominations add 600 CRS points.

How VG Immigration Can Help

RCIC-IRB Dimple Verma (R708308) and the VG Immigration team analyze every IRCC Express Entry draw in real time and translate the data into actionable next steps for candidates. We help applicants validate category eligibility, time language tests, sequence PNP nominations, and prepare ITA-ready document packages so that nothing is left to chance when an invitation arrives.

For full context on the 2026 Express Entry landscape, read our companion analyses:

• CEC Draw June 23, 2026 — 4,000 ITAs at CRS 516
• Express Entry Reform 2026 — PNP Draw June 22
• IRCC Language Requirements 2026 — Complete CELPIP/IELTS/PTE Core/TEF/TCF Guide
• Atlantic Immigration Program 2026: New Change-of-Employer Rules
• Canada Emigration 2026 Record Q1 — PR Strategy
• TR-to-PR Pathway 2026 — Major Cities Excluded
• Canada’s New TR-to-PR Pathway for 33,000 Workers
• Work Permit Restoration — Singh v Canada 2026 FC 828

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VG Immigration Services Inc. — Authorized RCIC-IRB Dimple Verma (R708308). 2 County Court Boulevard, Suite 400, Brampton, Ontario L6W 3W8. Predictions are analytical only based on IRCC’s published 2026 invitation schedule, actual 2026 draw history through June 23, and historical clustering patterns. No prediction guarantees a draw or category. Individual case outcomes vary.